Hurricane Ernesto to Hit Florida as a Cat 3

What a difference a night can make. Mr. Wind and I went out for a wonderful dinner last night and we awoke this morning to Hurricane Ernesto’s 5-day path changing shape. It now resembles a boomerang and is threatening us here in Florida, possibly as a category 3 (Winds 111-130 mph) by Thursday.

According to the experts, the computer models now unanimously predict that a strong low pressure will pull Hurricane Ernesto across Florida, and then send it out to sea. As of now, exactly where Hurricane Ernesto will make landfall in Florida is hard to pinpoint this far in advance. Meteorologists are suggesting that everywhere from Miami to Pensacola is at risk.

According to the 11am Advisory:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT…AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM.

Haiti and Cuba however are of immediate concern as they going to receive a hard blow from Hurricane Ernesto. It is entering into over 90 degree waters and will most likely slam into Cuba as a cat 2. According to Jeff Masters:

The eye of Ernesto will pass just south of or over the southwestern tip of Haiti today, pounding that impoverished nation with hurricane force winds and rains of up to 20 inches. I expect the death toll will be in the hundreds.

Haiti is an impoverished Caribbean nation that is 90% deforested. The deforestation is what makes Haiti vulnerability to deadly flooding and mudslides. The AP reports:

In Haiti, emergency officials went on local radio to warn people living in flimsy shantytowns on the southern coast to seek shelter in schools and churches. The hurricane center said life-threatening flash floods and mud slides were possible.

“These people could be in great danger,'’ said Adel Nazaire, a coordinator with Haiti’s civil protection agency.

“Flooding is the biggest concern because a lot of residents live along the rivers and the sea.'’

The latest projected path brings Hurricane Ernesto directly over Key West and the Lower Keys and very close to South Florida by Tuesday. Watches and warnings are likely to be posted on the Florida Keys today. Evacuation orders will most likely be announced by officials in the Keys soon.

Ultimate landfall looks to be around St. Petersburg and Tampa by early Thursday. But KEEP in mind - when a hurricane is still so many days out - the cone always moves and the path can change drastically. Each forecast has brought the projected track closer to South Florida and our area now sits squarely within the three-day cone.

Floridians still have time to remain alert and must get prepared. Now is the time to ensure that your hurricane plan and disaster supply kits are in place. Be sure to look through A Big Wind’s archives for information about plywood shutters; generators; garage door protection; hurricane plans; current outlook and more.