Entries Tagged 'Hurricane Planning' ↓

Tropical Storm Ernesto will go down as the storm that wasn’t - at least from the perspective of the U.S. Mainland that was bracing for our first real threat of the 2006 Hurricane Season. Don’t get me wrong - we’re all very happy that Ernesto broke down like a Wall Street Junk Bond Dealer. And, we’re already asking ourselves and our community what we can learn from the storm - or from our response to the storm.

First up - the mainstream media is about to jump to the immediate conclusion that since Ernesto fizzled, future storms are more likely to be ignored by area residents. This logic is easier to understand when you spend hours struggling with storm shutters, waiting in gas lines and enduring grocery cart cattle calls that are right out of a wild west movie only to learn that it was all for naught. We look across the street at our neighbor that didn’t do a thing and we hate them for being so damn lucky. We become numb to it all. Apathetic would be the watch word here.

How about all the things that were smoother this year than last?

I noticed quite a few improvements here in the West Palm Beach, Florida area. Over the last couple of years all your basic Hurricane supplies quickly ran out. Trying to find some C or D batteries, water, propane, flashlights or anything else used to ‘camp’ inside a stifling hot oven (better known here as a house without air conditioning from the storm aftermath) was next to impossible. This year, I found both grocery stores and our local home improvement stores both well stocked and relatively uncrowded.

Have distribution methods and preparedness improved in these retail sectors or were we all just better stocked-up after two years of constant reminders, delivered to us by high and low pressure fronts that steered nasty Tropical Storms and Hurricanes to our neck of the woods?

Here’s what hasn’t changed.

People, including yours truly, still put off taking action to protect themselves and their homes until the last minute. Hey, we’re busy, just like you, and we don’t have time to waste. If we’re going to prepare, we all have some internal threshold that needs to be met before our basic human desire to live kicks in and fires up the save-your-ass afterburners.

People still rush around like morons, including yours truly, after finally accepting that a storm may in fact arrive on our doorstep.

People are a little more on edge, blaring horns a little longer than needed, waving arms around excitedly, gesturing with hands and fingers in ways that we’d be otherwise quite embarrassed about.

Well, maybe not me.

Then there’s the gasoline…

If there’s one thing people don’t like it’s not having any options - and apparently if you’re a Floridian, running like hell is one of our favorite options. We’re fond of hanging chads and concealed carry gun laws for Granny as well.

That’s why we fill up our cars before, during, and after, we do anything else. And then if our cars are full, we fill up our spare gas cans. And if the storm still isn’t here yet, we go fill up our boat’s gas tank. Then, if the storm still isn’t here, we fill up our lawn mower because, heck, someone, or something might be able to ride it the hell out of here. We can live without a lot of things here in Hurricane Country, but gas ain’t one ‘em.

We ran out of gas quickly and the stations were jammed. I understand the lines, especially during peak times, but stations running out of gas seems entirely avoidable. What’s the problem, we’re not paying enough these days for our gas? Perhaps the petroleum companies can’t afford to send extra trucks so we can buy more of their product? I really thought that with advances like new Florida laws requiring gas stations close to major highways to have backup generators were a sign that we were building more fail safe systems? The power never went out, and we still couldn’t get it right.

It wasn’t because we had a lack of gas. Governor Jeb Bush reminded us that we didn’t need to hoard gas, that we had a plenticious supply, and that we had just done such a good job of being prepared (hoarding) that we had run low in some places.

Maybe next time we can get the re-supply of gas right? Here’s a hint to the petroleum industry - if you get this right, you can rob us blind even more!

Three days out from a forecast Tropical Storm or Hurricane hitting a region start sending a lot of extra gas trucks! I know you’ve already thought of this but apparently Buford didn’t get the memo. Better yet, I’ve got an idea to make you even more money.

Portable gas stations.

After all, what’s a gas station but a big tank of gasoline with spigots attached to it. A tanker truck is just an above ground gas station on wheels with some gas pumps missing. But what about modern conveniences you ask? Sure, a cashier, twelve temporary pumps, all hooked up to wireless ATM’s would be nice. But we’ll pay cash in the first few days after the storm since we understand that our communications infrastructure will be amiss. WE KNOW an engineer could figure this out. Actually don’t we already do this in the military? Supply chain right? Oh, so someone already thought of this a long time ago. Well, this is America. It seems like there must be a market for this and if it’s not South Florida, I don’t know where else I can suggest that’s better.

In closing, I just want to remind our readers and myself that, like our Tax deadline, December 31st, or Memorial Day, Hurricanes can be prepared for. Planned for. Strategized over. Staffed for. Contingency planned. Worst-case scenario’d. We can and should expect our providers to meet the demands of our market. And we can and should expect to use common sense and be accountable for firing up our save-your-ass afterburners just a little earlier, and a little more completely, the next time.

West Palm Beach, Florida — As Tropical Storm Ernesto churns its way through Cuba and heads into the Florida Straits the most recent forecast path puts South Florida directly in his way.

If you live in South Florida it seems like NOW is a good time to take evasive action with a safe retreat to a less windy and waterlogged part of the world.

Whether you have a Hurricane plan or not - it’s almost time to make your final go/no-go decision. For many of us - getting out of dodge by leaving town is an excellent option. If you are looking for a good option for travel arrangements you may want to become familiar with the new travel site called Kayak.

See, and you thought I was going to suggest a boat as part of your Hurricane evacuation plan.

Kayak.com is different from popular travel sites like Orbitz or Expedia in that it isn’t a site where you actually book travel.

Kayak lets you see travel deals from hundreds of travel web sites

Wait, we’re not sending you on a wild goose chase. Instead, Kayak lets you compare travel alternatives from hundreds of travel sites and find the best price and amenities for your trip. Given that flights and alternative modes of transport out of Florida are already booking up, you are going to want to have the greatest possible choice when booking your travel. That’s why you may want to try Kayak.

Here at abigwind we conducted a sample search on Kayak.com for a flight tomorrow morning (Tuesday August 29, 2006) from Ft. Lauderdale to Atlanta - returning Saturday. Our best price was a fare of $329 on Spirit Air. If I had visited 3 or 4 other travel booking sites I could have arrived at the same price, just not as fast, and in Hurricane evacuations, time is critical. Another point to consider when trying to evacuate from the path of a Hurricane is when you book your travel. As far as availability goes, booking now, rather than later, will certainly increase your chances of getting out of town. The alternative is a very long drive and long lines at the gas station. Unless of course, you’re looking to make 20 or so new friends, in which case the gas station socials are waiting for you to join in!

If you do end up using Kayak for your Hurricane evacuation travel plans please let us know how it goes by commenting here or visiting our Hurricane Protection news and information community at http://www.abigwind.com .

Good luck Hurricane Country!

What a difference a night can make. Mr. Wind and I went out for a wonderful dinner last night and we awoke this morning to Hurricane Ernesto’s 5-day path changing shape. It now resembles a boomerang and is threatening us here in Florida, possibly as a category 3 (Winds 111-130 mph) by Thursday.

According to the experts, the computer models now unanimously predict that a strong low pressure will pull Hurricane Ernesto across Florida, and then send it out to sea. As of now, exactly where Hurricane Ernesto will make landfall in Florida is hard to pinpoint this far in advance. Meteorologists are suggesting that everywhere from Miami to Pensacola is at risk.

According to the 11am Advisory:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT…AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM.

Haiti and Cuba however are of immediate concern as they going to receive a hard blow from Hurricane Ernesto. It is entering into over 90 degree waters and will most likely slam into Cuba as a cat 2. According to Jeff Masters:

The eye of Ernesto will pass just south of or over the southwestern tip of Haiti today, pounding that impoverished nation with hurricane force winds and rains of up to 20 inches. I expect the death toll will be in the hundreds.

Haiti is an impoverished Caribbean nation that is 90% deforested. The deforestation is what makes Haiti vulnerability to deadly flooding and mudslides. The AP reports:

In Haiti, emergency officials went on local radio to warn people living in flimsy shantytowns on the southern coast to seek shelter in schools and churches. The hurricane center said life-threatening flash floods and mud slides were possible.

“These people could be in great danger,'’ said Adel Nazaire, a coordinator with Haiti’s civil protection agency.

“Flooding is the biggest concern because a lot of residents live along the rivers and the sea.'’

The latest projected path brings Hurricane Ernesto directly over Key West and the Lower Keys and very close to South Florida by Tuesday. Watches and warnings are likely to be posted on the Florida Keys today. Evacuation orders will most likely be announced by officials in the Keys soon.

Ultimate landfall looks to be around St. Petersburg and Tampa by early Thursday. But KEEP in mind - when a hurricane is still so many days out - the cone always moves and the path can change drastically. Each forecast has brought the projected track closer to South Florida and our area now sits squarely within the three-day cone.

Floridians still have time to remain alert and must get prepared. Now is the time to ensure that your hurricane plan and disaster supply kits are in place. Be sure to look through A Big Wind’s archives for information about plywood shutters; generators; garage door protection; hurricane plans; current outlook and more.

These cautionary words today about Tropical Storm Chris, from Michael Black, a meteorologist with the federal government’s Hurricane Research Division on Virginia Key.

According to reports filed all over South Florida we’ve begun the official wait, worry and watch mode to see if Chris hits the Islands and continues on his way to South Florida where current storm tracks have him pointing. Since I just moved back to the water from 14 miles inland, just one block away from the Intracoastal waterway in West Palm Beach, I’m having no problem following along.

We actually moved away from this neighborhood just days before Frances tore the neighborhood apart in 2004. The huge Ficus tree across the street from my house crashed down in our park and was impressive enough to be featured days later on ABC’s national network news. Two years later, as I moved back in and went for my old walk along the waterway with my excitable Jack Russell Terriers I noticed in detail just how many homes and buildings were condemned or seriously damaged. Across the Intracoastal on Palm Beach, the summer season finds houses shut up tight with all kinds of hurricane protection. Is it my memory, or are a FAR higher percentage of those mansions shuttered up than before Frances?

While we’re keeping an eye out for Chris let’s all use this time to re-check our supplies, our hurricane plan, and plan for our safety with hurricane protection for your home or business. Got an insurance policy that needs to be updated? Remember, you can’t change your policy once we’re under a Hurricane Watch so act today for a little more piece of mind tonight. Likewise, if you DON’T already have shutters or some kind or impact windows, then now is a great time to get to your favorite home improvement store for the plywood and supplies you’ll need to shutter up your home. And don’t forget to protect your garage door.

UPDATE 6/13 10:48 AM EST: Alberto is weakening and is a Tropical Storm.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 MPH…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. Here is the latest advisory: 

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

…ALBERTO ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL…

AT 11 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE HURRICANE WARNING IS CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BAYPORT
NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.  ALL WARNINGS
SOUTH OF BAYPORT ARE DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM BAYPORT TO INDIAN PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT…1500Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES… 80 KM…SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.  THIS POSITION IS
JUST OFFSHORE OF KEATON BEACH FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/HR…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER WILL BE MOVING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES…185 KM
FROM THE CENTER…MAINLY OVER WATER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 996 MB…29.41 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER ALL OF GEORGIA EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE…OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE….AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA…SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA…AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION…29.8 N…83.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH 

UPDATE 6/13 5:00 AM EST: Alberto is still a Tropical Storm.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 MPH…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

…ALBERTO CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH…

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

AT 5 AM EDT…0900 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD…AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT…0900Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES… 95 KM…SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65
MILES…105 KM…WEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/HR…AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL NEAR MIDDAY
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR RESTRENGTHENING…
THE LIKELIHOOD THAT ALBERTO WILL BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO
LANDFALL IS DECREASING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 995 MB…29.38 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH TODAY.  STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA…SOUTHERN GEORGIA…AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY. 

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION…29.2 N…84.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI 

UPDATE 10:39pm EST: Alberto is still a Tropical Storm but still forecast to become a hurricane by landfall.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 MPH…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
0300Z TUE JUN 13 2006

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD… AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST
FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER…AT THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N  84.6W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT……. 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT…….140NE 140SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 175SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N  84.6W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N  84.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.5N  83.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT…GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT… 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT… 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT… 70NE 140SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.1N  82.5W…INLAND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT…GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT…120NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 33.1N  80.6W…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT…GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.0N  77.2W…INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT…GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.5N  68.0W…OVER WATER EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT…GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT…200NE 200SE   0SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 44.0N  60.0W…EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT…GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 49.5N  50.0W…EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT…GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N  84.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART 

UPDATE 4:30pm EST: Alberto is still a Tropical Storm but still forecast to become a hurricane by landfall.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 70 MPH…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
400 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER  11NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006400 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006…ALBERTO CONTINUES HEADED FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST…

 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER  11NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006400 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006…ALBERTO CONTINUES HEADED FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST…A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDAFROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD…AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 4 PM CDT…2100 UTC…A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE
SAVANNAH RIVER…AT THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

AT 4 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SOUTH OF
ENGLEWOOD TO BONITA BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT…2100Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH…LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES…200 KM…SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 145 MILES
…235 KM…SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/HR…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CENTER COULD REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA EARLY
TUESDAY…HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY DETERIORATING IN THE
WARNED AREA. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ALBERTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES…370
KM…TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA…MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB…29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION…27.9 N…85.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH 

UPDATE 2:15pm EST: Alberto is strengthening and may reach hurricane strengh. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006
100 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

…ALBERTO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
COAST…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD…AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
BONITA BEACH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT…1800Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT
155 MILES…250 KM…SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 180
MILES…285 KM…SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH…16 KM/HR
…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THE CENTER COULD REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA EARLY
TUESDAY…HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY DETERIORATING IN THE
WARNING AREA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH…110 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ALBERTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES…370
KM…TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE LARGE EXTENT
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MEANS THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE FELT
ALONG THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997
MB…29.44 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA…MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION…27.5 N…85.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

UPDATE 6/12 10:56 am EST: Alberto is strengthening and may reach hurricane strengh. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

…AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS ALBERTO LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND STRONGER…

AT 10 AM CDT…1500 UTC…A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD…AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
BONITA BEACH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF ALBERTO HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS PREVIOUS
LOCATION.

AT 1000 AM CDT…1500Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT
190 MILES…300 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 220 MILES…355 KM…SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR
…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH…110
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALBERTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES…370
KM…TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LARGE EXTENT
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MEANS THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE FELT
ALONG THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 997 MB…29.44 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA…MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION…27.1 N…85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

Update 8:00 am EST: Max winds are at 5O mph with higher gusts:

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
700 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

…ALBERTO HEADED FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO COAST…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
BONITA BEACH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT…1200Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST OR ABOUT 240
MILES…390 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT
295 MILES…475 KM…SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/HR
…AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
APPROACHING THE CENTER OF ALBERTO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES…370
KM…TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LARGE EXTENT
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MEANS THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE FELT
ALONG THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB…29.56 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS…CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES…ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA…MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
FLORIDA TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION…26.7 N…87.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

The following are the results of a survey that was originally published on a local south Florida TV station’s site (you can find that article here). These results illustrate why despite the overabundance of Hurricane Preparedness information available this year that a blog like this is needed. The overall lack of knowledge is what makes us hurricane country citizens vulnerable to scams.

The survey, that included residents who live within 30 miles of the coast, found some startling results. Of those surveyed:

• 56 percent don’t feel vulnerable to a hurricane or related tornado or flooding
• 60 percent have no family disaster plan
• 68 percent have no hurricane survival kit
• 83 percent have taken no steps to make their homes stronger
• 13 percent said they might not or would not evacuate even if ordered to leaveExperts say that not evacuating could leave tens of thousands of lives at risk. Of the 13 percent of residents who said they are responsible for an elderly or disabled person, one in three had no disaster plan for them if a hurricane threatened. Correct Information Could Save Your Life
  
• One in five people surveyed said they would leave only 12 to 24 hours before a storm makes landfall, and one in three said they would drive as far as possible, trying to outrun the storm. (Emergency managers say residents should only go as far as necessary to find a safe shelter outside the evacuation zone.)
• The deadly threat of storm surge was one of the most serious knowledge gaps revealed by the survey. Of those surveyed, 68 percent did not know storm surge represents the greatest potential for loss of life from a hurricane. (Experts say storm surge can account for deaths well inland yet 13 percent of coastal residents said they would not or might not evacuate even if ordered to do so.)
• The survey also revealed as many as a third of residents may not be adequately insured. One in three of those surveyed said it’s been three years or longer since they reviewed their insurance coverage and an equal number said they didn’t have or weren’t sure if they had replacement coverage. Given the huge growth in property values in many areas, these residents may not have adequate coverage to rebuild if they suffered catastrophic losses.
• In addition, more than half of those surveyed thought their insurance policies covered flood damage or weren’t sure. In fact, homeowners only have flood protection if they have purchased federal flood insurance.
• More than one in four surveyed said it’s government’s responsibility to provide water, food, medicine and shelter in the first few days after a hurricane - or weren’t sure who should be responsible. (Officials say every resident should have a three-day supply of food, water and medicines.)
• Nearly half said they would not wait for officials to declare it safe to return, but would return to a hurricane-struck area as soon as the storm passed. (Most deaths associated with hurricanes happen after the storm.)
• Nearly half said their employers likely would not know where they were going or how to reach them after a storm. (Officials say recovery depends on businesses having a plan to get back into operation quickly after a storm, which requires knowing how to reach their workforce.)

Other problems pointed out by the survey included:

• 94 percent didn’t know that garage doors are the structural component most likely to fail during a hurricane. (Garage doors can be easily strengthened at modest cost with a reinforcement kit.)
• 70 percent wrongly thought most tornadoes occur within three miles of the eye of the storm. (Tornadoes associated with land-falling hurricanes are spawned in rain bands that can occur hundreds of miles from the eye of the storm.)
• 81 percent did not know that storm intensity is the least reliable forecasting projection. (A Category 1 or 2 storm could be a Category 4 or 5 at landfall.)
• 50 percent still thought masking tape would help keep windows from shattering. (Masking tape offers no protective value at all.)
• 67 percent thought candles or kerosene lamps are suggested items to use in the event of a power failure. (Emergency experts warn that candles and kerosene lamps are significant safety hazards.)

Hurricane Friends has a novel concept that might just fit into your evacuation plan this year. For $9.95, the Lakeland, Florida firm’s Web site promises to pair you or your family with prescreened volunteers willing to open their homes to evacuees before a big storm. After a nasty bout with Hurricane Charley last year Joe Shaffer made up his mind to never ride out a storm again. Now he’s signed up on Hurricane Friends as both a host house and as a potential evacuee.

The Sun-Sentinel wrote, “The idea appealed to him. With three kids, a cat and a dog, the Bartow resident said heading to a government shelter isn’t realistic and his family can’t afford a long hotel stay. And, unlike nonprofit sites that simply list contact information, Shaffer liked the mandatory criminal background check.”

“I would rather go to my family, but they are all either out in Nevada or up in Ohio and that’s a long way to go,'’ Shaffer said. “It seems like a good idea. I’m kind of a quiet person, but I have a personal interest here. We hope it catches on.'’